"G.H.W." (Bush I) v. "Dubya" (Bush II)

The Project for the New American Century (founded by William Kristol and Robert Kagan) found a synergistic home in the neoconservative movement that included Rumsfeld, Wolfowitz and Perle. The Republican party, and in particular, its Christian right wing found particular comfort in much of the PNAC dogma.

Based on the following hypothetical situation, George H.W. Bush (Bush I) could be a courageous American who gave up a second term, in part because of economic conditions oft sited, but also because of his understanding of realpolitik. He made a difficult policy decision, similar to that made by Truman with regard to using a nuclear weapon to end the Pacific War (an interesting “doublespeak” juxtaposition).

The Setting: It’s the end of the Gulf War, the economy is not doing well and Bush I sits in the Oval Office fully aware that if he doesn’t go after Saddam Hussein, a pumped up citizenry might not view him as having “finished the job.” He and his advisers do not think he can win a second term without something drastic. Enter the Neocons with a proposition: take out Saddam Hussein.

Bush I: “Can we do that?”
Neocons: “Of course. We’re there and we know where he is and it is written in the new Bible of our think tank that we can remove a weak dictator who doesn’t listen to us like we want, impose our own puppet pseudo-democracy and stabilize a large supply of oil for ourselves. The resulting war will be big enough to justify more military funding and thus help our campaign contributors, especially since our international support may dissolve and we may have to go it alone. But the economy will improve because it always does in a war.

"The big prizes are the side effects: You get elected to a second term. Regardless of the mess, Americans are a loyal lot and will not change horses in the middle of a war – and war there will be. The Christian righteous will love it; convert the gentiles. Even better, when we vanquish those primitive Arabs ‘with shock and awe,’ they’ll want to give us the oil just for liberating them.
Bush I: “Well let me check the feasibility with the military.”
Neocons: “Oh, you needn’t bother, act like the Commander-in-Chief that you are!”
Bush I: “I’ll give it some real thought, boys.”

The Neocons leave and he immediately calls in the Joint Chief leadership (Schwarzkopf, Powell et al) and asks “Can we get Saddam?”
Generals: “Sir yes sir” which is what you always say to your “Commander in Chief."
Bush I: “Well, should we do it?”
Generals: “May we speak freely sir?”
Bush I: “Of course, I need all the real information I can get [unlike another member of the Bush family].
Generals: “Mr. President, this action would run contrary to the American principle of self-determination. We’ve run these scenarios out at the military war colleges for years, and it's always a lose-lose situation. What do you know about Iraq, sir?”
Bush I: “A fair bit, guys. Remember I have traveled and directed the CIA. I kind of fancy myself a realpolitik guy. I seem to remember that there are multiple ethnicities forced to live as a nation at the end of the British Raj. Their culture depends more on tribal and family ties than on evolved political philosophical principles. There are many groups and more than one kind of Muslim and lots of special interest countries surrounding them.”
Generals: “That’s right sir and when you cut the head off this chicken there’s no telling how it will run around in the barnyard, if not out of the barnyard. Even worse, when the civil war comes, we’ll be right in the middle of it, and you know what happens to the person who tries to break up a dog fight, sir.”
Bush I: “But can you take him out?”
Generals: “ Sir, yes sir, we know exactly where he is. But what will you do after we get him, especially when your tenuous international coalition dissolves?”
Bush I: “Don’t you guys have a plan for such a contingency?”
Generals: “No, sir. We would have to project power half way around the world for at least 20 to 40 years to maybe have a good effect. Look how long the British Raj stayed around with mixed results – a modicum in Eastern cultures and nothing good in Western (Muslim) cultures. Try as we might, all of our projections end in civil war and even more regional instability. You just don’t want to be there, sir. By the way, sir, who won the American Civil War, the British or the French?”
Bush I: “Come on, guys, that’s a trick question, you know that you can benefit from someone else’s civil war, but you can’t win it. They have to do that for themselves. Ultimately its always a ‘self-determination’ thing.”
Generals: “That’s right sir, there is no good exit strategy. That Saddam’s a bad actor, but he’s their bad actor. People live with what they will till they have the gumption to change it. That’s what self-determination is all about, sir. What’s worse, we will leave with our tails between our legs just like we did in Vietnam – and without the oil. If you break it sir, you own it. Do you have some strong ideological reason to do this, sir? Because if we go, we will have to commit as if we want to annex the place. That’s the only scenario that has a chance. Do you want to mire us in another Vietnam?”
Bush I: “So you’re saying ‘There's no way out?’”
Generals; “Sir, yes sir. Best to leave while the leaving’s good.”

Contrast this with George W. Bush (Bush II, henceforth), he with the confirmed addictive personality. The modus operandi of an addictive personality is the comfortable simplicity of absolutism – either I have my drug or I don’t. The successes of various sundry “12 step-programs” are with the most “suggestible among the latter. The programs rely on “substitution therapy,” i.e. the replacement of a socially unacceptable addiction with one that is acceptable, usually religion (“the opiate of the masses”).

Contrary to popular belief, oil was not Bush II's primal cause. Always an advocate of the simplistic solution to solve a complex problem, he fell under the spell of the certainty of PNAC ideology. Right wing Christianity and PNAC ideology were clear ideological paths for Bush II. He easily embraced the “one true solution fallacy” and did everything he could to get us into a war and solidify a two-term Republican presidency (the only Bush II “failure” that he was sure to reverse).

Oil was the “red herring.” Our country has subjected itself to the leadership of a President without historical or cultural perspective and without a thoughtful ethos. It was ideology, not oil, and the best part is that the coward didn’t have to fight his own battle, he and the other old men could send our children to die in it. Addicts always “stay the course,” and a confused and limited misunderstanding of loyalty became his mantra.

After “Dubya,” with the help of his Neocon dialecticians, trumped up a way to spin the terrorism issue into an Iraq invasion, “Dubya” and his father didn’t talk much. Bush I laid low. "Dubya" wasn’t “finishing the job for his father, he and PNAC cronies were waiting for any reason to get into a war to “shake things up in the stagnant cold war that is the Middle East.” It wasn’t long before the Taliban and Al Qaida gave it to them.

Fast-forward to the present. Can you imagine Bush II’s phone call to his father after the recent elections:
Bush I: “Hello, who is this.”
Bush II: “It’s Georgy, Dad.”
Bush I: “Haven’t heard from you in a while. What do you want this time?”
Bush II: I (tears heard dripping over the phone): “Daddy, I really screwed the pooch this time. Can you get me out of this? You saved me back when I almost had to go to Vietnam. I don’t think the people love me anymore. You gotta help me, I’m your son!”
Bush I: “I told you not to do it. I told you to play the evangelical right, not become one. I told you not to listen to those PNAC simpletons. Again, you were sure you were right and flipped me off.”
Bush II (plaintive voice): “But I hired the same guys you did , Cheney, Rumsfeld – they were in your administration too.”
Bush I: “Not all – and when their advice didn’t pass the straight face test, I didn’t listen to them. I told you that Truman was right and the ‘buck stops' at the President’s desk. Are you ready to listen this time?”
Bush II (begging): “You gotta save me dad, its all going down the tubes.” I think I really did it this time and I don’t know how to get out of it.”
Bush I: “Are you ready to listen?”
Bush II: “Yes, anything.”

Bush I: “First, dump that idiot Rumsfeld. Hire some of the right people from my administration – make sure you hire the ones that are still alive. I’ll give you a list of the best ones to ‘spin’ you out of it. Then reinvent yourself and suck up to the Democrats. Stop with the ‘stay the course’ crap’ and get that woman to negotiate with the Koreans.

"Its OK to listen to the religious right, just don’t act on their recommendations. You've got to shine 'em like Reagan did. I’m not saying you can really be saved except in terms of your religious claptrap. And stop worrying about your evangelical base. They'll forgive almost anything if you just act 'misled,' and 'fess up" to having the same weaknesses 'from which we all suffer.' It's worked for you before. The more you display incompetence up front, the grander the prayer meeting and the forgiveness. If you're lucky, you might even be able to blame it on the inabilities of your so-called Iraqi leadership and the Democrats themselves -- for forcing you into premature evacuation. After you finish, call me back if they don't wise up and develop the spine to impeach you.”